By JAMES BELL
Hays Post
As western Kansas settles into the typically dry and warm summer months, the lack of moisture in the spring is beginning to impact ag producers across the board.
"Right now, pretty much all of western Kansas is in some stage of a drought," said Bob Gillen, K-State Agriculture Research Center department head. "Some would be moderate drought, ranging all the way up to extreme drought."
While the area is now heading into the warmest months of the year, he said the amount of precipitation in the area can vary widely year to year.
"The whole history of western Kansas is drought, then a wetter period, then headed into the next drought," Gillen said. "So in that sense, it's not unusual."
Some areas though are in what he described as a once-in-a-decade drought.
"We have some areas right now, starting in southwestern Ellis County then goes to the southwest corner of the state that is in a drought that we would only see about one year out of 10," Gillen said. "So in that sense, it is getting into the extreme end."
While last year above-average precipitation fell in the area, both 2015 and 2012 were dryer than normal in Hays.
If you take the last seven years and average them together, we have had 4 inches more rain per year than the overall average," Gillen said.
But that doesn't mean that the drought might not continue — or get worse.
While the amount of precipitation in the area for the next few months is anybody's guess, looking at the long-term trends, Gillen said, we expect things to get drier.
"Right now, about 20 percent of western Kansas is in that one out of a 10-year drought,"
In the Hays area, the drought is not as pervasive.
"We are about in a two out of 10-year drought in Hays," Gillen said.
The 2 inches of rain that fell in the area over the Memorial Day weekend helped soften the overall drought around Hays, but the drought becomes more extreme further south.
"If you start from Hays and go down towards southwest Kansas it gets drier and drier," Gillen said. "And if you get all the way down toward Lakin and Syracuse, they are actually in what we call an extreme drought, which is a one-out-of-20-year drought."
Weather predictions indicate little or no relief will come through June, but conditions may improve by the end of the summer, but may not be enough to pull the hardest-hit areas in southwest Kansas out of drought conditions.
What about the crops?
So far, the drought conditions have not impacted the wheat crop around Hays significantly.
"It's going to be an average year," Gillen said. "Maybe not too bad."
But producers to the west may not be so lucky.
"The research station that I oversee in Garden City, we are talking about 20-bushel yields," Gillen said, "if we do that well."
While the wheat crop will be affected by the dry conditions, corn and soybean crops could take a harder hit.
"The corn and soybeans, particularly if we stay in this dry trend through the month of June, I think they are going to be under some pretty substantial stress," Gillen said. "Grain sorghum possibly, as well."
Grass growth for cattle production is also not immune to the drought conditions. And with producers already struggling with COVID-19-related issues and falling market prices, the drought is compounding concerns.
"There is not too much good news out there for ag producers right now," Gillen said. "Economic conditions are quite poor, particularly for beef producers, and a little more than for the grain producers."