By CRISTINA JANNEY
Hays Post
Business is good in Ellis County, with the local gross domestic product exceeding both the Kansas and national rates, according to Doug Williams, executive director of Grow Hays.
Williams and Wichita State University experts presented at the annual economic forecast conference Thursday in Hays.
Ellis County's GDP for 2022, the most recent data available, was more than 15%. The National GDP was just above 10%, and the state GDP was 5%.
"It shows that Ellis County has been on a real roll as of late," Williams said. ... "It confirms what we have been seeing for the last several years that our local economy is doing quite well."
Ellis County produces more oil than any other county in Kansas, with more than 2 million gallons produced in 2023. Williams said oil production is on pace for a similar output in 2024.
Oil is important to the Ellis County economy not only because of the revenue produced from the sale of oil but also because money pours into the community from jobs drilling new wells and maintaining existing wells.
Many factors influence the price of oil, both foreign and domestic. During the pandemic, the price of oil declined sharply due to lower demand.
The price has since rebounded.
"Oil is always a feast or famine kind of business. That's the nature of it," Williams said. "It's been pretty steady for the last several years."
Although Hays is a retail center, it also greatly benefits from the agricultural production in the surrounding areas.
"While that is another industry that ebbs and flows based on grain prices and cattle prices, for the most part, we have seen pretty good stability in the ag sector," Williams said. "If you look at land prices, which may not be a total indication of how things are in the agriculture business, land prices have been escalating a lot.
"There's a significant demand for land and the prices have risen considerably."
Hays is also a health care center for a significant area of rural northwest Kansas.
HaysMed is the single largest employer in Ellis County.
However, HaysMed has recently operated at a loss.
"The health care system nationwide is broken," Williams said. "The financial model doesn't work. I read that of the 98 rural hospitals, 80 lost money last year.
"The reimbursement models are a mess, whether that be insurance providers or Medicare or Medicaid, and of course the ongoing battle in Kansas to pass Medicaid expansion."
"Health care is a tough nut to crack right now, but very important to our local economy," Williams said.
If you combine higher education and K-12 education across the county, more people are employed in the education industry than any other in Ellis County.
Fort Hays State University saw an increase in enrollment this fall but has seen a decline in enrollment during the last five years.
SEE RELATED STORY: Fall enrollment in Fort Hays programs marked by growth in several key areas
Higher education across the country is facing a demographic cliff, with fewer young people available to enter programs in the coming years.
Some students choose to forgo the debt of a four-year degree and attend a tech or trade school instead.
Fort Hays Tech | North Central enrollment was up 3.1% this fall. However, the school's enrollment is up 11.5% over five years.
The FHSU affiliation agreement allows for a more seamless transition from the tech schools, including Fort Hays Tech | Northwest, to advanced degrees and certifications at FHSU.
One example is the RN to BSN program for nurses.
"I applaud Fort Hays for this merger they have done because it covers all of the bases at this point," Williams said.
He said FHSU continues to be one of the most affordable universities in the region, and the enrollment increase this fall is a good sign.
"I'm confident Fort Hays can do what they need to do," Williams said.
Water continues to be a challenge for Ellis County. The city of Hays bought water rights for the R9 Ranch in Edwards County. Water would be diverted from wells on the ranch to Hays and Russell.
That project has leaped many legal hurdles but is still pending.
SEE RELATED STORY: Hays, Russell sue Edwards County over R9 project
"That was in 1995, and we still haven't got a drop of water from that ranch as of yet. It continues to be litigated."
"I don't think there will be any doubt of what the outcome will ultimately be. The city of Hays and city of Russell will prevail because it's their land, and they have the right to the water. The law is pretty clear. That doesn't stop people from putting up roadblocks and trying to delay that process. But it will happen."
Williams said he hopes the two cities are close to the end of the process.
Some industries will never be a good fit for Hays because of their significant water usage. However, he said Hays will need more water to increase manufacturing and meet the needs of a growing population.
Workforce still is one of Ellis County and the region's most significant challenges, Williams said. Most of northwest Kansas' unemployment rates were less than 4% as of September.
Williams said Grow Hays has focused on housing initiatives to address the worker shortage.
"If you are going to attract workers and retain workers, you have to have places for them to live," he said, "but I don't anticipate our workforce issues to be resolved anytime soon."
As the population in surrounding rural areas continues to decline, Hays needs to increase its population to maintain its economic viability, Williams said.
"We are a regional hub," Williams said. "People come here to shop. They come here for health care. They come here for entertainment. As that market continues to decrease, we do have to increase our local population in order to keep the same quality of life that we currently have."
The Wichita State real estate expert was very complimentary of what Hays has done to increase housing availability.
Hays has more than 20 housing projects in the works worth almost $300 million.
Williams said the expert said many Kansas communities are trying to emulate Hays' approach to housing.
"That made me feel that we are on the right track," Williams said. "We are doing a lot of positive things. Never enough, but I think we're on the right track.
"Just based on the GDP numbers, our economy is doing very well."